Transport demand forecast and its energy and environmental implications : the case of the Kathmandu valley | |
| Author | Shrestha, Ranjan Prakash |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.ET-98-10 |
| Subject(s) | Transportation--Energy conservation--Kathmandu Valley Transportation--Energy consumption Environmental impact analysis |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The Kathmandu Valley has an advanced economic structure compared to other parts of the country. The growing economic activities and population growth in the valley along with, the additional migrants have resulted into rapid growth in the valley. As a result, traffic congestion, road accidents, parking problems, and air quality are worsening in the valley. In addition, lack of adequate transport management system, and inadequate public transpo1t infrastructure, and insufficient road length and poor quality of fuel are attributable for the growing environmental problem related to transport sector. This study has amply demonstrated that transportation demand, and therefore energy consumption to meet the demand is driven mainly by economic activities. An effect of fuel prices on energy consumption in transport sector is not observed significant. This is mainly, because of petroleum prices, which practically remained unchanged during the past two decades. The inefficient and growing use of petroleum fuel in the valley has given rise to increased emission from the tail pipe exhausts affecting human health and the environment in the valley. The increasing traffic problems will be continued in the next decade since traffic volumes are growing rapidly while the arterial road network is not being expanded significantly. Therefore, effective, efficient, and timely measures are needed to be implemented in the Kathmandu Valley to overcome these problems. This study has focussed mainly on forecasts of the transport demand and energy demand and estimation of air pollution from the transport sector energy use in the Kathmandu Valley. Five alternative scenarios have been developed and analyzed to examine the energy and environmental implications of the transp01i sector energy use. The study has been carried out using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Plaiming System (LEAP) model provided by Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston (SEI-B) for the forecasting of the transp01i demand, energy demand and its implications on environment. Among various modes of the transport, the demand for motorcycle is found to have highest share of about 59%in total transport demand during the forecast period, which is also growing faster than other modes. Consequently, energy demand for motorcycle would have the highest share, contributing about 52% share in total gasoline demand by 2020. The emission of carbon-monoxide (CO) is found to be a dominant air pollutant in the valley from the transport sector for the forecast period. This is mainly due to the higher share of gasoline consumption. Gasoline vehicles would contribute about 97% of CO by 2020. This could be reduced by 60% when efficient vehicles, LPG, and electric vehicles are introduced to replace the existing polluting vehicles. In addition, this would also save the scarce foreign currency resources of the country fully depends upon the import for petroleum products. |
| Year | 1998 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M. ; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Bhattacharya, S. C. ;Kumar, S. ;Pacudan, R. B.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | DAAD; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1998 |