Technology forecasting and SWOT analysis for thermal power plant/utility boiler manufacturing in Pakistan | |
| Author | Khan, Shamshad Ali |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no.SM-97-33 |
| Subject(s) | Technological forecasting--Pakistan Geothermal power plants--Pakistan |
| Note | A research submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration. |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Research studies project report ; no. SM-97-33 |
| Abstract | Technology forecasting is a powerful tool for a deep insight into the future, that not only helps in preparing for the future challenges, but also provides a determined path to follow and, to become a leader in the industry as an early starter. In view of evolving technologies in thermal power plants and utility boilers, an effort is made to forecast the trends of unit capacity for steam turbine power plants and steam parameters of utility boilers likely to emerge world wide as well as in Pakistan. The global forecast has been made covering a sample of six countries, which includes US, Russia, Japan, UK, Germany and China. These forecasts are made up to year 2010. The technology penetration data for both global and local forecasts comprises unit capacity, boiler pressure, boiler temperature and boiler capacity in terms of evaporation. The analysis reveals that global trends of unit capacity and steam parameters are stabilized towards sub-critical range of utility boilers. The local trends, on the other hand shows an upward tendency in these attributes, although expected to be well within sub-critical range up to the year 2010. The forecast trends are likely to greatly effect the in-house manufacturing requirements of thermal power plants and utility boilers, due to increased technological sophistication. Technology forecasting is a missing element, since long in the corporate strategies of machine building indust1y of Pakistan. The industry, though do not possess the capability to capture the expected power plant market in Pakistan, but do have the expertise for a slice of it. In the next phase of the study, to better apprehend the machine building industry of Pakistan, an assessment of its technological strengths and weaknesses, with respect to inhouse manufacturing of utility boilers of emerging local trends is carried out, within the framework of technology components and technology capabilities. A sample of five renowned local machine building companies is considered for this analysis. The forecast local trends of utility boilers are then bridged with these technological strengths and weaknesses, to determine future technological opportunities and threats to local machine building industry, with respect to in-house manufacturing of utility boilers. The analysis found a wide gap between the technological strengths of machine building industry of Pakistan and in-house manufacturing requirements of utility boilers of emerging trends. An intensive effort is therefore required, at the level of government, industry and companies, for the collective goal of modernization of local machine building industry and, subsequently for an increase in its technology content in thermal power plants. Accomplishment of this goal will not only contribute in strengthening the machine building base of Pakistan, but will also result in the long term economic prosperity of the country. |
| Year | 1997 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Research studies project report ; no. SM-97-33 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Management (SOM) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Master of Business Administration (MBA) (Publication code=SM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Sharif, Nawaz; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Paul, H.;Lee, B.N.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | World Bank; |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M.B.A.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1997. |