Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change in Upper Kotmale River Basin, Sri Lanka | |
| Author | Erandika Adikari, Adikari A.K. |
| Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-18-32 |
| Subject(s) | Spatial analysis (Statistics) Climatic changes--Sri Lanka--Upper Kotmale River Basin |
| Note | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil and Infrastructure Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-18-32 |
| Abstract | It is proved with evidence that the climate all over the world, is subjected to changes relent- lessly. The climate does not only has a change with time, but it also changes with spatially. These changes of climate can impact the water resource in numerous ways. Aside from these resource, the climatic changes can have countless impacts on the basins around these resources of water. Therefore, it is crucial to study the climate changes on the water resources and the environments around, to aid with future decision making processes. This study was focused on assessing the future changes of the climate in the Upper Kotmale river basin, Sri Lanka. The future variations in the two climatic variables rainfall and temper- ature were projected to have a clear understanding on the future impacts on the basin from these changes. The study utilized past rainfall data from 1980 to 2005 and temperature data from 189 to 2005 for the projections to be carried out. Data from three RCMs developed from CSIRO in Melbourne, under the two projection scnearios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used in obtaining the projections. The projections were grouped in to three future periods; near fu- ture (2010 to 2035), mid future (2036 to 2065) and far future (2066 to 2099). Also, these raw RCM data was subjected to bias correction by the method of linear scaling. The three RCMs projected a slight increase in daily temperature extremes. The combined results from the three RCMs projected an increase of rainfall from period to period where as the high- est increase were shown in second inter monsoon period (when analyzed inter-annually). Two of the RCMs depicted an increase of rainfall in the future where the other showed a reduction. The two projection scenarios produced different outputs for the combined result from the RCMs. RCP4.5 showed a increase of rainfall up to the end of mid future period, and then a reduction where RCP8.5 only showed a reduction up to the end of near future period. When considered inter-annually, the rainfall seemed to have had the increments and reductions in the south west monsoon, specifically. The precipitation indices CDD, CWD, PRCPTOT, Rx5day and R20mm, and the temperature indices SU, TR, DTR, TX90P and TN90P were calculated for the purpose of having a proper view of the climate. In addition, return periods for the precipitation was determined for each future period. Eventually, all the results indicated a increase in heavy rainfalls, decrease in light rainfalls and a increase in the temperature extremes, for the concerned future periods. The results recommend the decision makers to take necessary steps to make the optimum use of the water resource considering the heavy rainfalls and high temperature. In addition, the results warn the mankind on the natural hazards like flood that might occur, and the periods of occurrence. |
| Year | 2018 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-18-32 |
| Type | Capstone Project |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam ;Duc Hoang Nguyen (Co-Chairperson); |
| Degree | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil and Infrastructure Engineering |