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Projections of precipitation and temperature patterns under climate change scenarios in the Wangchu River Basin of Bhutan | |
Author | Kavindi De Silva, Neelahandi Yenushi |
Call Number | AIT Caps. Proj. no.CIE-18-62 |
Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Bhutan--Wangchu River Basin Climatology--Bhutan--Wangchu River Basin |
Note | A capstone project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Engineering Civil and Infrastructure Engineering |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Series Statement | Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-18-62 |
Abstract | Climate change has become a global concern and it effects the water resources in various ways. It is really important to quantify the impacts of climate change in a river basin be- cause many lives depend upon it. It helps to make decisions related to the water resources management of the basin. This study assessed the rainfall and temperature patterns in the Wangchu River Basin of Bhutan for the period of 2010 to 2099. Daily rainfall data for the baseline period of 1976 to 2005 of nine selected stations in the basin were used in this study. Moreover, daily temperature data for the same baseline period of five stations in the basin were used. To observe the changes in rainfall and temperature patterns with the elevation, the stations were divided into three elevation zones namely low elevation (2200-2400m), medium elevation (2400-2600m) and high elevation (2400-2600m). The future rainfall and temperature patterns in the Wangchu River Basin were projected using three RCMs under two RCP scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The raw RCM data was bias corrected using linear scaling method and was used for further analysis. The ensemble mean of the three RCMs were used to obtain future rainfall and temperature patterns since all the RCMs projected an increase in rainfall compared with the baseline period. The future period was divided into three terms such as near future (2020s/201O-2040), mid future (2050s/2041-2070) and far future (2080s/2071-2099) and the future results were discussed under those periods. Annual average rainfall, mean annual temperature, three precipitation indices i.e. CDD, CWD and R20mrn, four temperature indices TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn were the indicators which were used to visualize the results more effectually. According to the projections, the average annual rainfall will be highest in 2050s while the mean annual temperature will increase gradually in the future. It is observed that the CDD will increase and CWD will decrease while R20mrn varied according to the time periods and elevation zones. Furthermore, TXx, TNx, TXn and TNn will increase in the future resulting an increase of warm events. The results of this study will be helpful for the policy makers to optimize the usage of water resources considering the climate change patterns in the future. |
Year | 2018 |
Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Caps. Proj. ; no. CIE-18-62 |
Type | Capstone Project |
School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
Academic Program/FoS | Civil and Infrastructure Engineering (CIE) |
Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam; |
Examination Committee(s) | Duc Hoang Nguyen; |
Degree | Capstone Project (B.Sc.)-Asian Institute of Technology, 2018 |