Gasoline and diesel demand in selected Asian countries : a cointegration analysis | |
| Author | Tuzelbaev, Bakbergen I. |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no. ET-96-3 |
| Subject(s) | Energy consumption--Asia--Forecasting Gasoline--Asia Diesel fuels--Asia |
| Note | A research study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study estimates gasoline and diesel demand in transport sector of selected Asian countries. The static and dynamic (a lagged endogenous term) models were used to estimate gasoline demand elasticities through cointegration framework and error-correction model (ECM) to examine short-run and long-run elasticities of gasoline and diesel demand in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and South Korea for the period 1973-92. Cointegration analyses indicate that fuel demand, output and fuel prices are cointegrated of order I(l ). In the case of gasoline demand cointegrating vectors were found to exist in all selected countries except Thailand. In the case of diesel demand, cointegrating vectors were found only in Indonesia and South Korea. The gasoline and diesel demand elasticities in the selected countries (wherever cointegrating vector existed) tend to be closer to those of industrialized countries. Short-run price elasticities of gasoline demands vary from -0.01 to -0.225 and diesel demands vary from -0.17 to -0.23. In the long-run, gasoline demand was found to be price elastic in Philippines and South Korea. There is a fairly strong evidence that the long-run income elasticity of gasoline demands varies from 0.654 to 1.826. It is also found that long-run income elasticities of diesel demand were 1.208 and 1.359 for Indonesia and South Korea respectively. Gasoline and diesel demands were observed to be income inelastic in short-run except in Indonesia for gasoline demand. |
| Year | 1996 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Pacudan, R.;Nagarur, N. N. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The Government of Japan |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1996 |