Multivariate cointegration and causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, foreign direct investment and exports : recent evidence from Vietnam | |
| Author | Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.DBA-SOM-18-02 |
| Subject(s) | Electric Power Consumption -- Vietnam: Investments, Foreign -- Vietnam Economic development -- Vietnam |
| Note | A dissertation proposal submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Business Administration (title page = 2017) |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This research investigates the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam using time series data from 1980 – 2013. The researcher expects to fill the gap in the energy literature with a multi-relationship case study of Vietnam. The unit root test for stationary of the time series is first utilized. However, because of the specific characteristic of the electricity consumption and economic growth, Clemente – Montanes – Reyes unit root test allows for two structural breaks is secondly applied in the mean of the series. Next, in order to examine the long-run relationship between multi-data, the Pesaran bound cointegration technique is applied. The objectives of the research not only aim to explore the long-run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth but also attempt to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Moreover, figuring out the relationship of these two variables together with other vital factors like exports and FDI to suggest suitable policy implications for macro-economic operators is the key of this research. This study may benefit to suppliers, consumers, exporters, investors, policymakers and forecasters who are planning to secure the electricity supply, considering the availability and affordability of the electricity, as well as investing in the power network infrastructure and forecasting policy implications. The scale of this research is taken in Vietnam only with a particular period of time from 1980 to 2013. However, its findings may have referential values to other later studies. By using the multivariate models, the variables relationship is clearly explained and demonstrated. Our estimation results indicate that real GDP, Electricity Consumption (EC), Exports (EX) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Vietnam are cointegrated and there is unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to EC, EX and FDI, not vice versa. The data also show that there is bidirectional Granger causality between EC and EX. Keywords: Electricity consumption; Economic Growth; Vietnam; Break structures; Clemente – Montanes – Reyes; ARDL; VECM; VAR |
| Year | 2018 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Management |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Doctor of Philosophy in Business Administration (Publication code = DBA-SM, SM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Winai Wongsurawat;Igel,Barbara (Co-Chairperson) |
| Examination Committee(s) | Vimolwan Yukongdi;Weerakorn Ongsaku;Seema Sharma; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Vietnam Electricity, Ho Chi Minh City Power Corporation; |