Enhancing urban water supply system performance under demographic and climate change : a case study of Nairobi, Kenya | |
| Author | Maina, Eunice Wanjiku |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.UWEM-21-02 |
| Subject(s) | Water-supply--Kenya--Nairobi--Management--Case studies Climatic changes--Kenya--Nairobi--Case studies Water demand management--Kenya--Nairobi--Case studies |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Urban Water Engineering and Management Jointly offered by Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand and IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, the Netherlands |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Water Supply Systems have been facing water provision challenges especially in urban areas due to urbanization induced by increasing population growth. This has also been exacerbated by climate change leading to service interruptions and more so in developing countries. The aim of this study was to enhance system performance of urban water supply under demographic and climate change. This involved investigating climatic, socio-economic and management instrument factors inducing water use in Nairobi city in order to forecast future water demand. This was achieved by carrying out a multivariate econometric approach i.e., statistical analysis using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). The data collected was from 2007 to 2019 (13 years) and the forecast period was from 2020 to 2049 (30 years). The future system performance was evaluated using the projected flows from previous study by Munene (2019) and the new obtained future water demand scenarios. This was carried out under different climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with adoption of four RCM climate Models also used in the previous studies in the same region. From the outcome of the system performance, adaptation measures were developed and stress tested under the different climate and demand scenarios. Furthermore, the adaptation measures were subjected to economic analysis to establish the most feasible measures to be adopted. The economic analysis was carried out by conducting cost benefit analysis on each measure. This involved also the use of Net Present Value (NPV) of both costs and benefits, Discount rate (DR) as economic measures to determine the acceptable benefit to cost ratio (BCR) in the economic analysis. Economic Internal Rate of Return (IRR) was used for sensitivity analysis. The results obtained indicate that the climate and utility management factors have no effect on water demand and concluded that in the case of Nairobi, water demand will highly be influenced by availability of water and population. Hence, demand scenarios were developed based on different population growth patterns and looked into Exponential population growth and Decreasing rate of Increase population growth with per capita consumption scenarios of 85 and 170 lpd. The future system performance is at high risk of failure if the future population takes an exponential growth pattern with a per capita consumption of 170 lpd under the CCLM 4-8-17 climate model which has the least projected water supply in both climate scenarios. In addition, the future performance of the system is at risk of failure under exponential demand scenarios (EDS) and in RCP 4.5 compared to RCP 8.5 under all demand scenarios. The most economic feasible adaptation measure to enhance resilience is the reduction of Non Revenue (NRW) which has a higher BCR in both climate models and climate scenarios compared to the rest of the adaptation measures. |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) + School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Urban Water Engineering and Management (UWEM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S. ;Vojinovic, Zoran (Co-Chairperson); |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Xue, Wenchao; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Orange Knowledge Programme (OKP);Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands/NUFFIC/IHE Delf;Asian Institute of Technology; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology - UNESCO-IHE, 2021 |