A knowledge-based forecasting system : the case of the Surya Tobacco Company in Nepal | |
| Author | Sarawagi, Deepak |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.IE-93-08 |
| Subject(s) | Expert systems (Computer science) Business forecasting |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. IE-93-08 |
| Abstract | In virtually every decision made, forecasting has a prominent role in the prediction of uncontrollable and controllable factors. Today, all the businesses are functioning in an increasingly complex environment, which has triggered the mind of all managers with regard to their sheer survival. The growing competition, economical imbalances, depletion of natural resources, and rapid changes in technology have not only changed the awareness of the customers, but have also given management sleepless nights. Although forecasting is not new to this age, obsolescence of various techniques, incapability to detect the change in data pattern, non-provision for the consideration of environment complexity, and small lead time have been the growing concern for the mangers in practically every company today. The advent and advancement in computer technology has added some hope and enthusiasm in the minds of the management and forecasters. However, some of the older methods cannot still be ruled out, because computers have eased the complexity in their application. This study has been undertaken to investigate one such possibility of efficient use of computers in forecasting. Since cigarette marketing is very sensitive to many factors, the most important activity to stay ahead in this business is to maintain availability, accessibility, and to explore and grab new opportunities. To accomplish these advantages, the company needs to be explicit in logistic, inventory, transportation, and human resources planning apart from precision required in sales promotion strategy and budgeting, which are influenced by a reliable and dynamic forecasting. An effort has been taken to integrate the objective forecasting method (systematic and automatic control of alpha parameter in single exponential smoothing) with subjective forecasting method (environment factors affecting the sales in a particular month) for short-term sales target of cigarettes in the Nepalese environment. |
| Year | 1993 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. IE-93-08 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Industrial Systems Engineering (DISE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Engineering (IE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Batanov, Dentcho N.; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Nagarur, Nagendra N. ;Hertzberg, Ellen |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | DAAD, Germany; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1993 |