| Author | Jayatissa, Palligoda Vithanage I. P. |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ET-94-18 |
| Subject(s) | Electric power consumption--Sri Lanka|xForecasting
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Today the concern of almost every country is to reduce the use of Energy. Though the prices play an important role in controlling demand, clearly there is no wide-spread confidence that price increases alone will curtail demand for energy. Therefore greater knowledge of the effect of prices as well as other factors affecting energy demand is needed, not only for short-run domestic policy, but also for anticipating developments in the world petroleum market, where countries like Sri Lanka virtually has no control at all. This study analyses the Residential and Industrial demand for electricity, one of the principal constituents in the country's energy requirements, using different econometric models as well as different data sets. Pooled cross-section time-series data were used in appliance stock fixed models and time-series data in flow-adjustment dynamic models. The latter specification accounts for the effect of the changes in the characteristics of the capital stock and allows to estimate long-run elasticity estimates of electricity demand, which are of great importance in energy policy decisions. In the analysis of residential sector, special considerations were given to the choice of price variable and to test certain theoretical expectations on the income effects associated with block rate structures. Several different model specifications were tested, each having different combinations of income and price variables. It is found that the demand for electricity by both residential and industrial consumers is neither income nor price elastic in the short-run as well as in the long-run. However the long-run income elasticity of residential consumers is quite high compared to moderate income elasticities found in the industrial sector. A summary of existing demand studies on both sectors was prepared and it was found that the results of the present study lies well within the most probable income and price elasticity ranges determined from the existing studies. Also the theoretical expectation that the consumers are aware of the income effect due to changes in intramarginal rates of the tariff structure was rejected by the results , in agreement with the findings of the existing studies. Finally the presence of a large number of new consumers on the electricity demand was analyzed to see whether it has an effect on the average consumption of the household sector; and the results confirmed that the presence of new consumers is to reduce the average consumption. The same model was used in assessing the ability of the models in predicting electricity demand changes, for variations in its determinants. |
| Year | 1994 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Amin, A.T.M. Nurul;Ramanathan, K.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The Government of the Netherlands |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1994 |