Assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yield : a multi modeling study | |
| Author | Munir, Zaffar |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.WM-20-10 |
| Subject(s) | Wheat--Climatic factors Crops and climate Crop yields--Mathematical models |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Wheat in Pakistan holds an extremely important position in agriculture and the national economy. Pakistan will face the significant future challenges to feed an ever-growing population, with 47.0% of the population is categorized as food insecure. Climate Change is posing an alarming threat to agricultural production and global food security. The core theme of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Punjab Province of Pakistan. For this purpose, three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) including, ACCESS-CSIROCCAM, CNRM-CM-CSIROCCAM and MPI were selected for the projections of future climate variables to assess the climate change impacts on wheat yields. The output of these RCMs show that the rainfall would be increased by 17.14 to 61.72% and 21.18 to 52.68% under RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5, respectively. Similarly, maximum and minimum temperature would be increased up to 5.15 oC & 5.81 oC same RCPs, respectively. Further, the outputs of these RCMs were used by two crop growth models such as Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM ) and Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfer (DSSAT) to predict the impact of future climate change on wheat yield. Firstly, these crop models were calibrated and validated with measured data under various nitrogen treatments i.e. 0, 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 kg N ha-1. The statistical indices including, d-index, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean percent error (MPD) and modeling efficiency (ME) were computed to check the performances of these models. The scores of these indices indicate that both models were well calibrated and validated. Subsequently, the results of both crop models show that wheat yield will be reduced yield 2.81 to 31.0% under both RCPs and three century periods relative to baseline yield. This decrease in yield can be compensated by selecting the various agricultural adaptation measures. In this context, increasing the fertilizer application rate would enhance the yield up to 21.11% and 10-days early planting are useful measures to achieve 7.03% more yield under future climate change conditions. Additionally, the irrigation management and planting density imposed minor difference in wheat yield compared to current irrigation and planting density. In conclusion, the planting time and proper nutrient management could be beneficial to attain higher wheat production under climate change scenarios in Faisalabad District of Punjab, Pakistan. |
| Year | 2020 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Sangam |
| Examination Committee(s) | Babel, Mukand Singh;Datta, Avishek;Sundaram, Mohana S. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | World Bank;Punjab Agriculture Department, Pakistan |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2020 |