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Planning and management models for the conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources under uncertainty | |
Author | Shrestha, Pushpa Raj Onta |
Call Number | AIT Diss. no. WA-91-01 |
Subject(s) | Water resources development--Mathematical models |
Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Series Statement | Dissertation ; no. WA-91-01 |
Abstract | This study addresses several key issues in the optimal conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources. It deals with different approaches to integrated water systems modeling based on different considerations. A comprehensive analytical framework for planning, development and management of regional wat e r resources has been provided. Special at tent ion is paid to incorporate various important uncertainties. Applicability of t he proposed mathematical models i s demonstrated with particular reference to irrigated agriculture in a representative river basin , the Bagmati River Basin in t he subtropical Terai region of Nepal. Available surf ace and ground water resources have been analyzed and irrigation water demand assessed. A practical tool for generating mutually related sequences of rainfall and streamflow has been derived. Appropriate static and dynamic optimization model s have been developed and applied for identifying alternative development and management plans. The alternatives have been evaluate d by a multiple criteria decision-making method . Sensitivity analyses for important physical and economic parameters have been carried out. A distributed - parameter regional aquifer simulation model has been used to test the results from the lumped model (at higher hierarchical level) considering both the temporal and spatial response of the conjunctive use system. A combined deterministic-stochastic framework utilizing the geostatistical method (i. e. kriging) has been created t o investigate t he uncertainties in estimation and prediction problems in distributed- parameter systems. The results of the analyses indicate that both surface and ground water resources should be developed and managed for optimal utilization of limited water resources which vary with time and space. For the Bagmati River Basin , trade- offs exist between t he objectives of maximizing tot al net economic benefit and total irrigated cropped area. Trade - offs a l so exist among different economic and risk related performance criteria (i . e. cost , benefit, reliability , vulnerability and resiliency ) of the alternative designs and operation policies. Evaluation of these trade- offs has facilitated the determination of t he most satisfying scale of development , agricultural crop plans, system design capacities and water allocation policies. The results are found to be sensitive to unit cost of pumping, irrigation system efficiency and irrigation recharge coefficient. Finally, the results of the combined de terministic-stochastic approach to regional aquifer simulation have made it possible to evaluate planning alternatives, to appreciate t he importance of uncertainties by quantifying them and to identify important data needs for the future. |
Year | 1991 |
Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Dissertation ; no. WA-91-01 |
Type | Dissertation |
School | School of Engineering and Technology |
Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
Academic Program/FoS | Water Resources Research Engineering (WA) |
Chairperson(s) | Gupta, Ashim Das ; |
Examination Committee(s) | Harboe, Ricardo ;Huynh Ngoc Phien ;Paudyal, Guna N. ; |
Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Australia ; |
Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1991 |