Stochastic dynamic programming model for Indus Basin in Pakistan (2 parallel, 2 series reservoirs) | |
| Author | Javed, Khalid |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. WA-89-07 |
| Subject(s) | Water resources development--Pakistan Stochastic programming |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Series Statement | Thesis ; no. WA-89-07 |
| Abstract | Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) models are developed for an existing Multi-unit multi-purpose water resource system with four feasible system configurations to find out the configuration that leads to the optimum operation of the system. The models consider explicitly formulated serial co-relation. First order (lag one) Markov chain model is assumed to be adequate to describe the stochastic nature of inflows to the reservoirs. Joint transitional probability matrices, estimated from the available historical data, are used to incorporate cross co-relation of inflows to the reservoirs. The Indus Basin reservoir system in Pakistan is selected as a case study. It consists of three reservoir s, Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma. Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs are in series while the Mangla reservoir is parallel to them. Maximization of expected annual energy generation while fulfilling the irrigation demand constraint is thought to be the most suitable objective function for this study. However, an analysis carried out to find out the best way of incorporation of irrigation constraint. The optimum operation policies derived from SDP models define the target storage states of the reservoir(s) as a function of initial storage state in a given decade and the set of inflows during the decade. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of SDP based operation policies and to gauge the historical operation as compared to the SDP suggested operation. Finally, the system performance values for different system configurations are compared and an optimum configuration is selected. The con figuration with joint optimization of Tarbela and Chashma reservoirs and independent optimization of Mangla reservoir results in the most optimal operation policies. In view of the results, the model can be used for planning the operation of the system. |
| Year | 1989 |
| Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. WA-89-07 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Resources Research Engineering (WA) |
| Chairperson(s) | Harboe, Ricardo;Loof, Rainer; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Paudyal, Guna N.;Goto, Akira; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA);Government of Canada; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1989 |