| Author | Dhungel, Himesh |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. ET-90-14 |
| Subject(s) | Electric power consumption--Nepal--Forecasting
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology
|
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study deals with the problem of short term and long term peak load
forecasting in Nepal. The stochastic time series Autoregressive Integrated Moving
average (ARIMA) method has been used to forecast load in the hourly, daily, weekly
and the monthly time horizons. In the paper, the bivariate transfer function model
with temperature as an explanatory variable is used to forecast the hourly peak
demand of a small area. A comparison of the transfer function model and the ARIMA
model (to forecast hourly demand) found that transfer function model performed
better than the ARIMA model.
The long term simulation type of forecasting model called Model for Analysis
of the Energy Demand (MAED) is used to forecast the annual pealed load and the
system load curves. The analysis and simulation of t h e system load curves under
different hypothetical conditions suggested that load management strategies could
possibly implemented (in Nepal) to reduce the peak load in the intermediate term.
The case study was carried out for the integrated electric system of Nepal
Electricity Authority. |
| Year | 1990 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Shrestha, Ram M. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Lapillonne, Bruno ;Nagarur, Nagendra N.
|
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The Government of Australia |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1990 |