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Prediction of subsidence with quantified uncertainty by an inverse analysis procedure | |
Author | Darmawan, Prabudi |
Call Number | AIT Thesis no.GT-89-08 |
Subject(s) | Subsidences (Earth movements)--Mathematical models |
Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
Series Statement | Thesis ; no. GT-89-08 |
Abstract | In predicting the future subsidence of an aquifer-aquitard system based on t he consolidation theory , one at least needs to know the following information: ( 1 ) soil parameters such as compression indexes, and coefficient of consolidation of compressive layers (aquitard ), (2) present distribution of excess pore water pressure in these layers, and (3) the future change of head distributions of the aquifers. However , almost all the time the available data are not sufficient to accurately estimate all the informations mentioned above. More specifically , number of soil tests are not enough to represent all area and they includes the measurement errors and the scale effects (for (l )) ; head observations are limited to the aquifers and the pore pressure distributions in the aquitards are rarely given (for ( 2 )) ; finally, the future head distributions are difficult to predict, and also they are often function of the countermeasures taken (for(3 )) . A better solution to problems (1 ) and ( 2 ) is provided . An inverse analysis procedure , which is to estimate soil parameters as well as the initial excess pore water pressure distributions from the past land subsidence observations , is developed and applied. Non-linear regression analysis plays main role here. It is found that length of observation based on consolidation response time is important in this inverse analysis. As a result , not only estimation values , but also estimation errors are quantified in the process. Furthermore , a methodology is developed to incorporate this estimation uncertainty in the process of future prediction of the subsidence so that not only mean of the subsidence but also uncertainty involved in it is quantified. This is done by applying First Order Second Moment method. The land subsidence in Nobi plain (Japan ) and Bangkok are taken as case studies. |
Year | 1990 |
Corresponding Series Added Entry | Asian Institute of Technology. Thesis ; no. GT-89-08 |
Type | Thesis |
School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
Academic Program/FoS | Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering (GT) |
Chairperson(s) | Honjo, Yusuke |
Examination Committee(s) | Balasubramaniam, A.S. ;Bergado, Dennes T. |
Scholarship Donor(s) | The Government of Japan; |
Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1990 |