Applicability of the time series analysis techniques for traffic volume forecast in developing countries | |
| Author | Nakata, Ichiro |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.GT-85-07 |
| Subject(s) | Traffic flow Time-series analysis |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Traffic forecast is now very impormant because recent traffic increase has much influence on social problems. One of the typical forecast methods is the Box-Jenkins method. But,in developing countries it sometimes happens that the data size is insufficient for analysis. This is the result of testing the appropriacy of the Box-Jenkins method for traffic volume with small-scale data . This research establishs two kinds of method to forecast traffic volume throughout Thailand. One method uses the Box-Jenkins method directly to forecast the data in time series. The other method is a combination of the Box-Jenkins Method and a cross-sectional model. The investigation carried out through a comparison between these two methods to determine which method is more precise. The study reveals that the Box-Jenkins method is not applicable for the forecasting of small-scale traffic volume . More accurate and more detailed data collection and model improvement to decrease the forecast errors are recommended. |
| Year | 1986 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology (SET) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Geotechnical and Transportation Engineering (GT) |
| Chairperson(s) | Miyamoto, Kazuaki; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Murata, Takahiro ;Prapansak Buranaprapa; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Japan ; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1986 |