| Author | Loo, Kok Seng |
| Call Number | AIT RSPR no. ET-85-1 |
| Subject(s) | Electric utilities--Research--Malaysia
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| Note | A Research Study submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering, School of Environment, Resources Development |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study is concerned with the formulation and application of different models for forecasting long term electricity demand in Peninsular Malaysia. The model derived and estimated are the dynamic and static econometric model for aggregate yearly data, while for sectoral analysis, individual casual relation of five economic sectors are obtained. Demand forecast till the year 1995 using different scenarios setting is then obtained using the final form of demand relationship. the analysis confirm the relevance of gross domestic product (value added), electricity price, number of connection as significant determinant of electricity demand in all aggregate model and in most sectoral demand equation. A Model which is able to analyse and capture closely the time lag response of electricity demand variation to changes of exogenous determinant is introduced. computer programme is formulated to provide solution to this 'lag adjustment scheme' model for both aggregate and sectoral model and forecast based on the same scenario setting employed by other model is carried out. The estimated structural relationship of the sectoral and aggregate lag adjustment model shows that the time lag response of electricity demand variation to changes of determining variable exists for all the socio-economic parameter employed especially the price element. Forecast comparisons indicates that all the models considered agreed closely in the short and medium run (1-5 years), but as the forecast horizon lengthen, the other models tend to be 'explosive' (giving high forecast) as compare to the lag adjustment scheme model. It is concluded here that this first stage development of this 'lag adjustment scheme model' has added a new dimension to the existing econometric demand model due to its ability to capture and describe quite closely lag response phenomena and its versatility in application. This lag model could be a promising tool for deriving forecast required for utility planning and management as it incorporates actual trend of lag adjustment of exogeneous determinant and not overemphasis the significance of current level of socio-economic parameter in determining demand level. |
| Year | 1985 |
| Type | Research Study Project Report (RSPR) |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development (SERD) |
| Department | Other Field of Studies (No Department) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy Technology (ET) |
| Chairperson(s) | Lucas, N.J.D. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Exell, Robert H.B. ;Sauter-Servaes, Florian |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Shell International, United Kingdom |
| Degree | Research Studies Project Report (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1985 |