Energy security of Bangladesh under alternate growth scenarios in the medium to long-term horizon | |
| Author | Khan, Mohammed Robayet |
| Call Number | AIT Diss no.ET-23-01 |
| Subject(s) | Energy security--Bangladesh Power resources--Management--Bangladesh Energy development--Bangladesh Energy policy--Bangladesh |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Energy |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Recent outbreak of the Covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war have altered the trajectories of global economy and subsequent increasing energy demand. The war imposed inflationary pressure following energy supply disruptions is about to induce a global economic downturn beside reorientation of energy trade and security. Hence, the fast-growing developing nations with limited exposure to maintaining long-term energy security need revisiting their energy conditions to determine long-term energy strategies. Bangladesh is an energy constraint fast-growing developing economy. The pandemic and war shocks seem to invalidate the previous projections of economic growth and energy demand of the country, particularly, done by the Power System Master Plan 2016 (PSMP), the prime energy strategy document of Bangladesh. Inability of the PSMP’s top-down GEM method to capture the role of many demand drivers also urges reassessment of energy demand with an end-use method. Hence, I undertook three-prong research. First, I developed a tailor-made five-dimensional energy security framework for Bangladesh with the mnemonic of 5A’s (availability, affordability, accessibility, acceptability, and adaptability) consulting stakeholders and energy experts simultaneously employing a two-round Delphi process and statistical analysis. Second, I projected final energy demand for 2021-2041 period matching with projection horizon of the PSMP employing bottom up MAED model under low, reference, and high growth scenarios. Lastly, I developed a composite energy security index following the novel energy security framework (5A’s), and assessed Bangladesh’s energy security performance against the projected energy demand and the PSMP supply plan. Findings suggest that self-dependence, quality of supply, access to affordable energy services, and climate change impacts are the key energy security issues for Bangladesh. Inclusion of stakeholders beside the energy experts in developing 5A’s helps determine their difference in the perception toward several energy security issues, balance the biasness in the expert judgement, and increase comprehensiveness and robustness of the framework. Total final energy demand is projected to increase by two to three times across the scenarios, which is closely comparable to the PSMP projection in energy efficiency scenario. However, evolution of the sectoral shares in the energy demand is quite different across the studies. The manufacturing sector becomes the largest energy consuming sector driven primarily by the energy intensive industries. Transport and service sectors increase their share by almost 50% against decreasing residential and agriculture sector. Bangladesh’s energy security performance deteriorates from upper moderate to lower moderate level over the projection period primarily due to poor performance in the availability and affordability dimensions of the energy security framework. Performance in the security of energy supply remarkably deteriorates from as high as 9.6 in 2018 to poor 4.1 in 2041 due to rapid increase of per capita energy consumption, fast depletion of domestic reserves, and sharp rise in power and energy import.Increased energy demand, and Stakeholders’ emphasis on self-dependency urge repositioning of the existing import-dependent supply plan toward exploration and development of the domestic natural gas, coal, and renewables much faster and in much greater extent than the PSMP targets. Improving energy efficiency in the industrial processes, demand side management in the residential and service sectors, and implementing the existing regulatory options seem to be effective policy tools for Bangladesh to improve energy security performance in the long run. |
| Year | 2023 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development |
| Department | Department of Energy and Climate Change (Former title: Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Change (DEECC)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Energy (ET, Start from 2022) |
| Chairperson(s) | Dhakal, Shobhakar |
| Examination Committee(s) | Roy, Joyashree;Ekbordin Winijkul |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Asian Institute of Technology Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2023 |