Evaluation of some useful methods for seasonal streamflow forecasting | |
| Author | Jean, Wei-haw |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. CA-84-19 |
| Subject(s) | Time-series analysis Hydrology--Computer programs |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | In this study , three different statistical models were applied to forecast the monthly Streamflows of the Mekong River at five stations and or the Tachia River at two stations . The Thomas-Fiering Model and Sen Model were used directly to forecast the monthly streamflows at all of the seven stations using its own time series. Moreover, in all of the five Mekong stations the Hybrid model was also employed to forecast the monthly streamflow using additional information, such as the last day streamflow, the last 3 days average flow. Besides those, the rainfall was also considered at Vientiane station because of its records availability. For the two stations of the Tachia River, not only streamflow but also precipitation, evaporation, local inflow were available, and all were considered. Selection of input variables to the Hybrid Model was made based upon the sample autocorrelation and crosscorrelation. The results obtained show that all the three models perform satisfactorily in providing forecasts with lead time up to 3 months. If more information is available, and stronger cross correlation exists then the Hybrid model gives more accurate forecasts than the Sen model or Thomas-Fiering model, both of which use only the streamflow in proceeding months. If the correlation is weak, all the three models give nearly the same results. Existing computer programs for the Hybrid model were revised and new programs for Sen and Thomas-Fiering models were developed. Having been tested with actual data, these programs should be useful in seasonal streamflow forecasting. |
| Year | 1984 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Computer Application (CA) |
| Chairperson(s) | Huynh, Ngoc Phien |
| Examination Committee(s) | Kanchit Malaivongs ; Ti, Le Huu |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of R.O.C. |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1984 |