| Author | Hou, Young-chang |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no. CA-83-7 |
| Subject(s) | Typhoons--Statistical methods
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This study develops a statistical model for typhoon forecasting for Taiwan, R.O.C.. It consists of two submodels: typhoon track forecasting and typhoon rainfall forecasting. In order to arrive at a suitable model for typhoon forecasting, Stepwise Regression (STRE) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) are used. Both models are tested and compared with each other.
Typhoon track forecasting equations with lead times of 6, 12, 18, 24, 36 and 48 hours are developed. The results show that both, the STRE and GMDH, methods have almost the same forecasting ability, whereas for long lead times (36 and 48 hours), the STRE method is found to be slightly better than the GMDH method.
Rainfall amount forecasting equations for 6 and 12 hours are also developed. The results show that forecasting for 12 hours is more reliable than for 6 hours. As regards the comparison between the STRE and GMDH methods, the results are almost the same.
The variables used in this study are current longitude and latitude, current movement of the typhoon, movement during past 12 hours, maximum wind speed, day number and rainfall during the past 6 and 12 hours. |
| Year | 1983 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Information and Communications Technologies (DICT) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Computer Application (CA) |
| Chairperson(s) | Huynh, Ngoc Phien; |
| Examination Committee(s) | I, Fude ;Malik, Ghulam M.; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The Government of Republic of China; |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1983 |