| Author | Islam, Md. Nazrul |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no. IE-82-02 |
| Subject(s) | Technological forecasting
|
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering. School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Most of the literature in technological forecasting deals with models of prediction in a deterministic framework. Such a framework is obviously not adequate, because the technological change often depends on chance mechanism. This suggests that models in stochastic or probabilistic framework are more appropriate for technological forecasting as they reflect the reality more accurately. Attempts have
been made in this dissertation to study the phenomenon of technological change by developing models based on probabilistic framework. In all,
three models are presented here. The first model is an empirical one, where the Weibull Distribution function is used as a general model for forecasting technological change. It has also been shown that most of
the available models are special cases of this model. In the second model, Reliability Engineering approach has been adopted for forecasting
technological breakthroughs. In breakthrough analysis of complex technological systems, the situation is somewhat similar but opposite to the system reliability case. For breakthrough forecasting, the problem is to determine the probability of occurance of success of a non-performing system. The concept of 'attainability function ' has been
introduced here which is derived in a similar fashion as 'reliability
function'. Technological changes occur either through innovations or inventions. Although the arrival of innovations is random in nature, it is not completely incidental. The third model uses Markov Chain analysis for the prediction of innovation occurrence assuming that the
future innovations are dependent on the present state of innovations. |
| Year | 1982 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Industrial Systems Engineering (DISE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Engineering (IE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Sharif, M. Nawaz |
| Examination Committee(s) | Pakorn Adulbhan ; Tang, John C.S. ; Huynh, Ngoc Phien ; Ayres, Robert U.
|
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Japan
|
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1982 |