| Author | Gillani, Syed Zaheer Ahmed |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.IE-82-05 |
| Subject(s) | Cotton--Pakistan--Marketing
|
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Cotton is the most important cash crop of Pakistan. A persistent cyclical movement is observed in the cotton market of the country. Thesedayes the market is experiencing a sharp downward trend which seems to be uncontrol able. This report discusses how the dynamics of cotton market in Pakistan are generated. The structure of the system is studies and a simulation model is prepared and tested in a system dynamics framework. The model provides a concise picture of the cotton market decision mechanisms and furnishes a powerful tool for analysis of alternative policies designed to improve the stability of the system.
The experiments with the model have proved the existence of a long term cycle of 18 years. These cycles are responsible for the stagnation currently being experienced by the cotton market in Pakistan. The long term cycles are explained in terms of fixed capital investment decision. It is found that the short term cycles of four years are not due to random factors or internal supply relationships of the system. In default, these seem to be caused by the business cycles in the international cotton market.
The reason of failure of Pakistan government policies is found to be the wrong hypothesis whereby random factors such as rains, floods, etc., and internal market structure are responsible for short term cycles. The generally adopted policies of price fixation and technological advancement are tested with help of the model. It is found that these policies, instead of stabilizing the system, create even more instability. |
| Year | 1982 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Industrial Systems Engineering (DISE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Engineering (IE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Saeed, Khalid
|
| Examination Committee(s) | Tang, John C.S. ; Clarke Harry R.
|
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Government of Denmark |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1982 |