A stochastic network approach for technological forecasting and analysing optimal level of unpackaging for technology transfer | |
| Author | Chin, Wai-hing |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no. IE-81-01 |
| Subject(s) | Technological forecasting--Statistical methods Technology transfer |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | A stochastic. network technique has been developed for forecasting regarding large complex technological systems. This technique is based on the principle of combining the component forecasts to give the overall composite forecast. The whole system under forecast is first decomposed in two dimensions: one physically based which is decomposed into different levels of sub-systems and parts, the other activity based which is decomposed into different projects and activities. Forecasts are then prepared for each components for which data or experts' opinions are available and reliable. Then the overall forecast can be obtained by combining the component forecasts into a composite forecast. The developed technique is based on an integrated approach which incorporates both the normative and exploratory approaches to technological forecasting through a stochastic network system. For developing countries, the technology needed may be acquired through local R&D programs, transfer from abroad or a mixture. A model based on stochastic network has been developed for evaluating the proper way to transfer/develop the needed technology. Different alternatives of techno logy transfer, each with different levels of unpackage, can be represented by some variations in the structure and parameters of the stochastic networks. Three major factors, namely, the indigenous involvement, the time to complete the transfer process, and economic benefits, are considered in this model. Evaluations obtained through the synthesis of those networks can provide valuable information for the decision maker. A case study on the electrical vehicle development program in Taiwan has been carried out. Four different alternatives, each with different levels of unpackage to transfer/develop the needed technology, has been studied in the illustration. |
| Year | 1981 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Industrial Systems Engineering (DISE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Industrial Engineering (IE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Sharif, M. N. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Adulbhan, Pakorn ; Huynh, Ngoc Phien ; Turoff, Murray |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Taiwan Power Company |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1981 |