Simulating the climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies for rice production in the Lower Chao Phraya Basin | |
| Author | Sakron Vilavan |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.AE-23-01 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Thailand Rice farming--Environmental aspects --Thailand Crops and climate--Thailand |
| Note | A Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Agricultural Systems and Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Climate change could potentially affect crop productivity and food supply, and hence adaptation measures are needed to enhance the resilience of agricultural systems. The lower Chao Phraya basin in Thailand is a major rice-producing area that faces severe challenges from climate change risks and frequent drought/flood incidences. The overall goal of this project is to assess the impacts of climate change on the yield and water use of rice and identify optimum climate change adaptation strategies using the DSSAT-CERES-Rice model. The model was calibrated and evaluated using the observed data from rice field experiments conducted at the Asian Institute of Technology research farms during the years 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, respectively. The evaluated model was used to compare rice yield and water use between baseline (2010–2022) and future periods (early-century: 2023–2040, mid-century: 2041-2070, and late-century: 2071–2100). An ensemble of five selected Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 project was used for the future climate projections under three climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). The adaptation strategies were designed by modifying crop genotype parameters to incorporate drought/heat tolerance, high yield potential, and long-maturity traits. Similarly, the feasibility of different management strategies (e.g., changing chemicals/fertilizers/irrigation applications) was also assessed. The model simulated results reveal that the maximum and minimum temperatures for the late century are expected to increase by ~2°C and ~4°C under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Evaluation of management practices strategies suggests that shifting the fertilizer application date by two weeks forward during the panicle initiation stage can improve the rice yield without affecting the irrigation water use. Changing the water irrigation threshold resulted in stable rice yield and saves water irrigation up to 90% at 30% thresholds. With a high yield potential (G1) cultivar, rice yield under SSP585 increased by 8.3%. Increased heat tolerant cultivar was found as the most effective genotype-based strategy to increase rice yield under mid-century and the late-century periods. |
| Year | 2023 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development |
| Department | Department of Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources (Former title: Department of Food Agriculture, and BioResources (DFAB)) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Agricultural Systems and Engineering (ASE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Himanshu, Sushil Kumar; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Datta, Avishek;Zulfiqar, Farhad; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government (RTG); |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2023 |