Systems dynamic models for selected agricultural subsectors in Southern Mindanao region, Philippines | |
| Author | Antipolo, Sophremiano |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.HS-81-01 |
| Subject(s) | System analysis Agriculture and state--Philippines--Mindanao, Southern |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The models developed in this research cover three subsectors of agriculture: crops, livestock and poultry, and fisheries. Each subsector is modelled in detail covering all commodities with respect to its potential and actual production, supply-demand interaction, and export-import determination. Using system semantics. the models have been formulated in a way that they allow consideration of important feedback loops, the interaction of variables, and evaluation of agricultural development policies. The dynamics of the modelled agricultural subsectors over a thirty-year period is revealed by simulating the models and observing the behavior of selected variables. The reference run yields basic prediction, forming the bases for comparison with the policy run. The results of the reference simulation indicate that food crop productivity will continue to increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.08 percent. On the other hand, aggregate growth rate for gross crop production is expected at 3.1 percent per annum. Sizeable surpluses are anticipated in rice, long with soybeans and sorghum. Shortages, however, will be likely in root crops, tubers , and bulbs, and vegetable crops. Higher productivity level and gross production growth rates are expected from commercial crops. These are projected at 0.9 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. Favorable production balances are seen in all commercial crops, except for sugarcane which indicates a reverse trend during the second half of the simulation time from. The scenario for livestock and fisheries subsectors appears bright except for beef production which is predicted to register unfavorable production balance during the second half of the planning horizon. To demonstrate that the models can serve as a laboratory for agricultural systems analysis and planning, some agricultural development schemes have been examined. Tests are performed for each scheme or combination of schemes to determine potential policy mix. An analysis tool called 'Deviation Matrix' has been devised to evaluate policy impact. The policy simulation results reveal the need for further intensification of the existing agricultural development program packages. This has been demonstrated by simulating the effect of Scheme 6 upon crop productivity, gross production, and production balance. Scheme 6 best combines the crucial production factors of mechanization; irrigation; fertilizer subsidy; improvement in accessibility; agricultural extension services; agricultural research; and capital investment. A ten percent-price support to the farmer-producers is simulated to effect a 12.5 percent-positive deviation in the level of actual production. This implies the need to provide for a reasonable price incentive to agricultural producers in order to tap the Region's production potential. The simulation results and many other agricultural and related development schemes that can be tested using the model provide a valuable guide in agricultural policy formulation. The models just developed do not pretend to be exhaustive. In Chapter 6 some recommendations for future work are outlined to enhance their utility. |
| Year | 1981 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Human Settlement (HS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Kaji, Hideki |
| Examination Committee(s) | Angel, Shlomo ; Tabucanon, Mario T. |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | The Agricultural Development Council. |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1981 |