| Author | Hakeem, Safiah |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.HS-81-09 |
| Subject(s) | Rural-urban migration--Pakistan
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| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, School of Engineering and Technology |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This research attempts to develop a system dynamics model in order to unravel the dynamic behavior of the relationships that exist between the various sectors, such as population, employment, public facilities and economic sectors of the urban and rural economy of the Sind and Baluchistan province in Pakistan. It is based on the assumption that an action in one sector of the system can produce consequences in another sector. Often the consequences are unintended and undesirable. There is a need to understand the ways in which the major factors are influencing one another on a macro scale in order to have some confidence that our actions will lead to improvement rater than to making matters worse.
Studies of development information reveal growing evidence these sectors are interrelated, and that a change in one sector can be traced to changes in other sectors. Little is actually known about their dynamic behavior. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to extract the functional of the whole system of relationships at a given point in time, and to model a system to characterize the actual process of change. The thesis emphasizes this approach under conditions of available data, depending on the levels of activities and policy experimentation to develop evaluation criteria for reasonable choice among policy alternatives.
The model based on verbal description and a simple feedback loop has identified interacting activities in the urban and rural environment of Sind and Baluchistan Province simultaneously. These activities are population (demographic), public facilities (schools and hospitals), economic (employment and income) and housing. The interaction among these components is measured in terms of "attractiveness Factors" for both urban and rural regions separately, where the degree of spatial distribution of population "between regions", is later measured by the help of "relative attractiveness", depending upon the extend of supportive capacity and availability of various opportunities to be utilized in the respective regions.
Development of the region has been investigated in this research where a dynamic simulation model helps to forecast its future development. Based on the current situation as provided by the reference run and the changes brought about later by the policy alternatives, forecasting the improvement and development of the region for policy implication, planning, information and need was based on the reference run and the required policy alternatives.
Based on the results of the reference run and policy run and policy runs (see Table 5) it was observed that urban attraction is high. This then requires more investment and extra effort on the part of the government to improve and upgrade the existing conditions prevailing in the rural regions.
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| Year | 1981 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Human Settlement (HS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Kaji, Hideki
|
| Examination Committee(s) | Tabucanon, Mario T. ; Angel, Shlomo
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| Scholarship Donor(s) | Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 1981 |