Water-energy-food nexus dynamics : possible futures and sectoral interdependencies in the Ping River Basin, Thailand | |
| Author | Chapagain, Kaushal |
| Call Number | AIT Diss. no.WM-24-04 |
| Subject(s) | Climatic changes--Thailand--Ping River Basin Land use--Thailand--Ping River Basin Water resources development--Thailand--Environmental aspects Sustainable development |
| Note | A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering in Water Engineering and Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Water, energy, and food resources interact among each other for various activities at a basin scale. The ongoing threats of changing climate, land use change due to socio economic development, rapid population growth, and urbanization are only going to further intensify and accelerate resource interactions. Nexus approaches is an integrated approach, that can examine the interactions between these resources simultaneously from a cross-sectoral lens and detect the synergies and trade-off among sectors, leading towards a more coherent approach to water, energy, and food resources management. This study’s key objective was to develop a framework to assess the state of interconnectedness among the water, energy, and food resources at a basin scale, analyze how the impact of climate and land use change would change the dynamics among these resources, and develop and evaluate intervention scenarios to identify synergies and tradeoff of water-energy-food nexus, which can be the basis for policies formulation, adaptation plans and informed decision making for effective water, energy, and food resource management by concerned authorities.To address these objectives, the study developed an indicator-based water-energy-food nexus assessment framework at the river basin scale. The framework is designed to have three successive levels for water-energy-food nexus assessment. Level 1 assessment evaluates the bilateral interaction among two resources. Level 2 assesses the interaction between two resources to produce the third resource, while Level 3 consolidates these findings into an overall water-energy-food nexus index that depicts the state of water-energy-food nexus. The framework application was showcased to the Ping River Basin, in northern part of Thailand. Overall, the water-energy-food nexus state in Ping River Basin is categorized at “fair” state in 2018, indicating that the basin requires considerable improvement for effective management of water, energy and food resources.Additionally, a modeling approach was developed to evaluate the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the water-energy-food nexus in the Ping River Basin. Results of future climate projections from four CMIP6 global circulation models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and land use projections from Dyna-CLUE model under five different land management strategies were fed into the integrated WEAP-MABIA-GIS model and their impacts on water-energy-food nexus were analyzed. Climate projections in the Ping River Basin indicate an increase in rainfall and temperatures, with higher changes expected in the mid and far future. Specifically, rainfall is projected to increase during wet seasons and decrease during dry seasons, while temperature increases are most pronounced from April to June. The Dyna-CLUE model forecasts a reduction in forest areas and expansion of agriculture and urban areas in most scenarios. The integrated model reveals a 9–54% increase in streamflow under various scenarios, leading to heightened flood risks in wet seasons and potential water scarcity in dry seasons. Hydropower potential may rise by 6–39%, though with increased flood risk. Conversely, agricultural productivity is projected to decline by 4 21%, primarily due to the rising temperatures and further exacerbated by the cultivation of high water-consuming crops, conventional irrigation techniques, and reliance on local rainfall. Water demands for urban, agricultural, and hydropower use are expected to increase, with agricultural and hydropower demands most affected by climate and land use changes.Finally, the intervention scenarios targeting water, energy and agriculture sector were built and analyzed in the integrated model to identify synergies and tradeoffs of the water-energy-food nexus in the study basin. Water-focused interventions, such as non revenue water reduction, rainwater harvesting, and wastewater reuse have significant potential to offset the water demand but increased energy demand, particularly under mid- and far-future climate and land use changes. Energy-focused interventions conclude that transition to renewable energy, such as solar energy and biomass/biofuel production could significantly reduce energy demand but may impact agricultural productivity due to heightened competition for water and land. Similarly, the intervention targeting agriculture shows that both enhanced agricultural practices and introducing modern technologies could substantially reduce the water demand and increase the agricultural productivity. However, modern technologies would also drive up energy demand, a trend expected to intensify under future climate and land use changes. |
| Year | 2024 |
| Type | Dissertation |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Water Engineering and Management (WM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Babel, Mukand S.;Shanmugam, Mohana Sundaram (Co-Chairperson) |
| Examination Committee(s) | Shrestha, Sangam;Huynh, Trung Luong |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | WRU CB Project;AIT Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (Ph.D.) - Asian Insitute of Technology, 2024 |