Risks in hydropower dam construction projects : a comprehensive analysis using Delphi and Bayesian Belief Networks model | |
| Author | Phongsatorn Srisuttisaard |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.CM-24-01 |
| Subject(s) | Dams--Project management Dams--Risk management Delphi method Bayesian statistical decision theory |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Construction, Engineering and Infrastructure Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Hydropower dam construction projects inherently involve numerous complexities and uncertainties, contributing to the overarching theme of risk in the infrastructure development sector. This thesis presents a comprehensive analysis of risk in dam construction projects, employing a novel approach that integrates the Delphi method and Bayesian Belief Networks model. The Delphi method serves as the initial stage of this research, engaging a panel of experts to systematically identify and assess the various kinds of risks associated with hydropower dam construction. Through iterative rounds of structured communication, consensus is sought among the experts to extract a comprehensive list of important risk factors. Subsequently, the Bayesian Belief Networks model is applied to formalize and quantify the relationships among important risk factors. This probabilistic graphical model facilitates a dynamic representation of dependencies and influences between risks, offering a more nuanced understanding of their interplay within the context of hydropower construction projects. The research results are not only the critical risk factors from the integrated approach but also propose a recommendation to mitigate critical risk factors in hydropower construction projects involves consulting experts and exploring alternative methods and document pathways. Thorough construction planning and precise documentation processes are essential, alongside adapting plans to match actual site conditions and effectively allocating resources while ensuring all parties remain informed. Conducting thorough experience and performance checks before subcontractor selection, coupled with the preparation of contingency plans, further strengthens the mitigation measures. The findings of this research contribute valuable insights to the field of hydropower dam construction project management, offering a robust framework for risk analysis that can be adapted to hydropower dam construction projects in Thailand and Lao DPR. |
| Year | 2024 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Construction Engineering and Infrastructure Management (CM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Santoso, Djoen San; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Chao, Kuo Chieh;Chutipom Anutariya; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government;AIT Scholarship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2024 |