Evaluation of optimal growth models for predicting carbon stocks and sequestration in teak plantations of Myanmar | |
| Author | Cho Cho Naing |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.NR-25-02 |
| Subject(s) | Carbon sequestration--Burma Forest ecology--Burma Teak----Burma--Government policy |
| Note | A thesis submitted in patial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Natural Resources Management |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | Teak plantations in Myanmar have gained increasing attention for their role in carbon emissions reduction alongside timber production. Nevertheless, their carbon sequestration potential at different growth stages for planning and implementing the carbon projects remains insufficiently understood although these plantations cover approximately 395,492 hectares (43.55% of the total commercial plantation area). Therefore, this study evaluated the most suitable growth model for the prediction of the carbon sequestration potential in teak plantations. Field data (the average height of 70 trees and the diameter at breast height (DBH) of 2626 trees) were gathered from 14 randomly selected sample plots with the size of 40 m² each within teak plantations aged 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 16, and 26 years in the Minpyin and Palwe Reserved Forests, Lewe Township, Naypyitaw. Current carbon storage in standing teak trees was assessed using allometric equations, resulting in estimated carbon stocks extending from 35.31 to 328.87 Mg C per hectare across these plantation ages. To establish the relationship between carbon stock and plantation age, nine traditional growth functions were evaluated. Among them, the Allometric, Logistic Power, and Weibull models demonstrated the strongest statistical indicators, while the Richards and Gompertz models, though slightly lower in statistical performance, provided reliable results and closely followed the natural tree growth pattern. All five models showed strong predictive performance based on statistical indicators such as R², AIC, RMSE, MPE, and TRE, closely aligning with observed data. These models provide a reliable tool to optimize plantation planning for forest managers and inform policymakers in developing climate policy, thereby contributing to global efforts to reduce atmospheric CO₂ and supporting Myanmar’s sustainable forestry and carbon credit initiatives. |
| Year | 2025 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development |
| Department | Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Natural Resources Management (NRM) |
| Chairperson(s) | Sasaki, Nophea; |
| Examination Committee(s) | Tsusaka, Takuji W.;Xue, Wenchao; |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Loom Nam Khong Pijai (Greater Mekong Subregion) Scholarship; |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2025 |