Impact of Covid-19 on road accidents on highway : a time series and an interrupted time series study | |
| Author | Apichai Tongpradubpetch |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.TE-22-02 |
| Subject(s) | Time-series analysis--Data processing Traffic accidents--Thailand COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020---Social aspects--Thailand |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering in Transportation Engineering |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | The main goal of this study is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on road accident in Thailand using time series and interrupted time series analysis. To achieve the goal, road accident data from the Department of Highway (DOH) which include total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, speeding crashes, and drunk driving crashes were obtained to conduct Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series models and Interrupted Time Series (ITS) models. 13-year period (from January 2009 to December 2021) and 7-year period (from January 2015 to December 2021) are chosen for study period for first and second objective, respectively, contained normal operation and the period of COVID-19 pandemic as well. Six SARIMA models were applied to forecast the number of accidents in case of without COVID-19 and then compare to the observed values to identify the difference. The result showed that the first wave of COVID-19 caused the significant reduction in all of road accident indicators instead of skyrocketing to a peak. After releasing the lockdown measures from the first wave of spreading, increasing was found in all of accident indicators as well. However, the third wave of COVID-19 which lasted longest for nearly 7 months also affected in decrease in the number of accident but not as much as the first wave of outbreak. Moreover, the result from interrupted time series also revealed the similar outcome with the first method. The model showed that the first outbreak associated with significant reduction in number of accidents in total crashes, single vehicle crashes, fatalities, fatal crashes, and speeding crashes, and the third outbreak had resulted in significant reduction of total crashes, fatalities, and fatal crashes. In addition, curfew and closure of entertainment places associated with significant decrease in number of speeding crashes and drunk driving crashes during 10 p.m. to 04 a.m., respectively. To fulfill this study, traffic volume, vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), fuel consumption, or other exposure data that can be the represent of the amount of travel should be considered to compute the accident rate. If the accident reduces, but the accident rate grows, it might be concluded that road safety performance is worse during the pandemic period. Furthermore, it can be observed that the COVID-19 counter measures such as curfew and ban for alcoholic beverage sale result in drop of number of speeding and drunk driving crashes. These measures might be considered to deploy to reduce number of accidents in normal operation. |
| Year | 2023 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Engineering and Technology |
| Department | Department of Civil and Infrastucture Engineering (DCIE) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Transportation Engineering (TE) |
| Chairperson(s) | Kunnawee Kanitpong |
| Examination Committee(s) | Ampol Karoonsoontawong;Santoso, Djoen San |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Royal Thai Government Fellowship |
| Degree | Thesis (M.Eng.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2023 |