Assessing the relationship between trade openness and carbon emissions through the autoregressive distributed Lag model : evidence from Vietnam | |
| Author | Nguyen Tan Danh |
| Call Number | AIT Thesis no.DS-24-05 |
| Subject(s) | Free trade--Vietnam--Environment aspects Carbon dioxide mitigation--Vietnam--Mathematical models |
| Note | A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Development and Sustainability |
| Publisher | Asian Institute of Technology |
| Abstract | This research aims to examine the relationships between trade openness and CO2 emissions in Vietnam over the three decades from 1990 to 2020 as well as forecast the trend of CO2 for the upcoming 15 years to work as a reliable source for policy recommendations. The Man-Whitney U-test was applied to assess the statistical significance of the change in the level of CO2 emissions between the pre- and post openness periods. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was then applied to analyze both the short run and long run dynamics between the selected variables based on the 30-year time series data. Moreover, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also employed to forecast CO2 emissions in Vietnam for the coming 15 years to provide the baseline scenario for evidence-based policymaking. The analysis data were collected from two authoritative sources, namely the World Bank (WB) and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam (GSO). From the U-test results, CO2 emissions proved to be significantly changed over the openness. The results of the ARDL model supported a non-linear relation between GDP per capita and CO2, however, the positive coefficient at 0.065; 0.067 and 0.069 in three quadratic models of the GDP per capita squared implies a non-existence of the EKC. The findings also highlight the dynamic relationship between CO2 emissions and export to GDP ratio (EX), which emphasizes that in the long run, export could be one of the main culprits behind the environmental challenges of Vietnam. While FDI shows a short run relation with emissions, the highly positive relation between energy consumption and CO2 emissions in both short and long run underscores the need for transitioning to sustainable energy sources. Additionally, the results of ARIMA model revealed a consistent upward trend in CO2 emissions to reach approximately 524,357 thousand metric tons over the next 15 years which highlights the necessity of fostering sustainable practices in Vietnam. |
| Year | 2024 |
| Type | Thesis |
| School | School of Environment, Resources, and Development |
| Department | Department of Development and Sustainability (DDS) |
| Academic Program/FoS | Development and Sustainability (DS) |
| Chairperson(s) | Tsusaka, Takuji W. |
| Examination Committee(s) | Sasaki, Nophea;Thi, Phuoc Lai Nguyen |
| Scholarship Donor(s) | Loom Nam Khong Pijai (Greater Mekong Subregion) Scholarships |
| Degree | Thesis (M. Sc.) - Asian Institute of Technology, 2024 |